• Probability To American Odds Formula
• American Odds To Implied Probability Sampling
• How To Calculate Implied Odds
• Money Line To Implied Probability
• Odds Converter Implied Probability

All games on the menus of legal sportsbooks feature lines that give the house an edge. No sports bet works out as an even money proposition on both sides.

The house edge allows the sportsbook to make money in the long term, no matter what actually happens on the field. Some games offer odds that favor the house more than others.

Negative figures: The odds state how much must be bet to win £100 profit e.g. American odds of -120 would win £100 on a £120 bet. Implied Probability Odds correlate to probability e.g a 3/1 bet is expected to win one in every 4 attempts, hence the probability is 25%. (Denominator / (denominator + numerator)) x 100 = implied probability For decimal odds, the calculation is: (1/decimal odds) x 100 = implied probability. And finally, to work out the implied probability from US odds you do the following: (Negative odds / (negative odds + 100)) x 100 = implied probability.

The Edge Table calculates the house edge for upcoming games across the top legal online sportsbooks. The Edge Table displays which sportsbook takes the lowest edge on each game, allowing bettors to evaluate which book presents the most player-friendly odds.

1. For example, a bet placed at +200 in American odds (2/1 in fractional or 3.00 in decimal) has a 33.33 percent implied winning probability. A bet placed at -200 in American odds (1/2 in fractional.
2. Implied Probability – Implied Probability is how often a bet must win to average break even. This is calculated as risk/return, so for example +200 in American format (3.00 European) is risk $100 to win $200 so a winning wager returns $300 ($100 stake + $200 win). Therefore the implied probability of +200 is $100/$300= 0.3333, which is 33.33%.

Sports Betting Edge Table

Calculating The House Edge

You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook.

Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds

Suppose the line on an upcoming Kansas City Chiefs game looks like this:

Probability To American Odds Formula

To calculate the implied probability of the Chiefs winning, you have to put the payout odds into the implied probability for negative American odds formula:

American Odds To Implied Probability Sampling

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds))/(-1(Odds) + 100)

Putting the Chiefs’ (-323) moneyline odds into this equation yields the following result:

(-1*(-323))/(-1(-323)+100)

That equation solves to 323/423, which converts to 76.36% (rounded up). The (-323) odds on Kansas City converts to a 76.36% implied probability of winning.

Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds

To calculate the Dolphins implied probability at (+275) moneyline odds, take a look at the implied probability for positive American odds formula:

Implied Probability = 100/(Odds + 100)

Putting Miami’s (+275) line into this formula yields the following:

100/(275 + 100)

That equation converts to 26.67% as the implied winning probability for the Dolphins.

Using Implied Probabilities To Determine The House Edge

Now that you’ve converted the moneyline odds on both sides of the bet into implied probabilities, you can calculate the house’s built-in edge on the Kansas City-Miami NFL game.

How To Calculate Implied Odds

To accomplish this, we add both implied probabilities together and subtract (1). Before we put the implied probabilities into the equation, we convert the percentages to decimal format:

(0.7636 + 0.2667) – 1

Which converts to:

Money Line To Implied Probability

1.303 – 1 = 0.303

The house edge on the Chiefs-Dolphins game in 0.303, or 3.03%.

Odds Converter Implied Probability

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