Horse racing is the third most popular sport to bet on in America, which is pretty impressive considering that it comes in 26^th regarding the number of people who watch it. The truth is that horse racing is not valued for the thrill of the sport itself, the main reason that people watch it is because they want to bet on it.

Almost everyone who watches a horse race places a wager on it. But only a few of those people will actually win. Some people use small bets as a form of social entertainment, so they don’t really care about the outcome.

But for those who are serious about wanting to win, there are several ways that you can use strategy to increase your overall payouts.

1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors. There are three primary betting systems used in horse racing. The method used will vary around the world and by track. Fixed odds betting is one of the most common systems across different sports. When you place a bet using fixed odds, you stake a wager with a bookmaker, who has established odds for that bet.

I will talk about how to research before the race, how to shop the odds, how to use different kinds of bets to your advantage, and how to deliberately expand the number of runs that you are betting on.

There is a lot of detail here, so you might want to bookmark this site so that you can refer back to it as you practice these tips, or so you can take it one suggestion at a time before moving onto the next one.

Even professional gamblers have losses regularly. The difference between a successful and unsuccessful bettor is not how many wins or losses that they have, but how much their overall payout is affected by each gain and loss.

The following strategies will not guarantee that you win every time, but they will increase your chances of getting a higher overall payout. No matter what kind of wagers you are placing, it is crucial to always gamble responsibly.

Gambling is exciting because it is a risk, but you should only take that risk if you are prepared to handle the possibility of a loss.

Use a budget to know how much you can potentially lose without risking your financial security. For more information on gambling responsibly visit our webpage by clicking the link below.

Tip #1- Do Your Homework!

Thousands of people bet millions of dollars on horse races each year, but a tiny percentage of those people do any research before selecting which horse to bet on. Even just a cursory glance at the racing program before you place your bet can significantly raise your chances of winning.

Racing forms, also known as form guides, will give you all of the information you need to know about a race and the horses competing. It won’t tell you which horse to bet on, but it will at least give you the information that you need to make an informed decision. I will tell you everything you need to know about reading a form guide.

It will be helpful for you to refer back to the following sample as we discuss each part of the racing form.

First, you should get some background on the race itself. The top of the racing form will list the time and location of the race along with the distance of the course. Underneath that it will explain the requirements to enter the competition and the race’s classification.

You can do a quick internet search to find out the kind of track available at each location. If you bet on multiple races, you will quickly learn which places have dirt tracks, which ones have turf, and which ones have both.

The rest of the form guide will give you information about each of the horses competing in that race. The horses are usually organized by the number that they will wear during the race. To the right of that number, there might be a number in parentheses that indicates the horse’s draw. The draw is their starting position in the stalls. Some places have advantages and disadvantages so pay attention to that information when you select the horse to bet on.

Next to the numbers will be the jockey’s shirt color. Some people like to gamble on a horse whose rider is wearing their favorite color. That is perfectly acceptable, but the color is not an indicator of who will win so mostly this is only useful for when you are watching the race.

The next column on the form guide will list the horse’s rank in their past few races. Sometimes these are listed underneath the horse’s number instead of in the next column. Usually, but not always, nine horses compete in each competition so that the rankings will be recorded from first to ninth place. Some races, like the Kentucky Derby, have more than nine horses.

In that case, only the first nine ranks will be listed on the form or a 0 will be listed instead. If there is a letter instead of a number it usually means that the horse was disqualified for some reason. Note the number of races that the horse has been in recently. If there are only a few races listed, you may want to do some extra research to find out why.

Knowing which horses are consistently in the top three is a good indicator of who is most likely to win the race. However, it is important to remember that each race is different. Some tracks are shorter than others; some runs may have a horse wearing blinkers while others may not. It is a good idea to find out more information about the past performances listed on the racing form so that you can notice correlations.

You might begin to see that a particular horse wins more often when it is on a dirt track instead of turf. Pay attention to those details so that you can recognize any patterns that might influence your selection on a particular race.

The next column will have information about each specific horse, including its name, gender, color, and its lineage. If the horse is from overseas, you will see an abbreviation of its country of origin in brackets. The color and gender will be listed as an abbreviation in one or two lowercase letters. For example, “c” stands for colt, while “ch” is for chestnut.

Next, to the horse’s name, you will see some numbers and letters. The number refers to how long it has been since its last race. The capitalized letters are a code used to describe information about the horse’s record. For example, if you see the letter CD next to the horse’s name, that horse has won races at this course and distance before.

The lowercase letters explain equipment that the horse will be using for this race, such as blinkers or visors. Sometimes, the equipment information is listed in the next column. That column will contain the horse’s age and how much weight it will be carrying during the race, registered in stones and pounds, where a stone equals fourteen pounds.

The fifth column names the jockey and the trainer for the horse. I recommend doing a quick search on the riders and trainers of horses that you might bet on. The trainer’s record of wins will be a good indication of the possibility of placing in the top three.

The final column on the racing form varies in different locations. Most of the time, this column will have the official rating, a simple way to tell how likely a horse is to win. This official rating usually comes from the racing organization that is hosting the event. Other times, the last column will include other statistics.

I know that all of this information can be overwhelming. Form guides have a ton of information, but as you can see, some of that information is more important than the rest.I recommend starting with just one aspect of the form guide. Familiarize yourself with everything you need to know from the horse information section.

Once you have learned how to use that to select winners, begin expanding to the past performances, official ratings, and finally the course information. Take it one step at a time, and before you know it, you will be astounded at how much you have learned. That’s why your teachers always said to do your homework!

Tip #2- Make Different Kinds of Bets

Up until now, I have focused on the most common type of wager for horse racing, the win bet, where you just choose which horse you think will win and hope that you are right.

However, there are so many more bets available besides that one. If you really want to take your horse race betting to the next level, learn how to incorporate different types of bets and use them strategically.

Horse racing is one of the most popular sports in almost every country, and it has been around for a very long time. Over time, each region has developed its own system of wagers and rules. For this article, I am going to focus on bets that are commonly used in the United States.

However, many times different countries use the same kinds of wagers with a different name, so whenever possible I will make a note of that. The win bet that we already mentioned is a universal wager.

Betting Systems

Before we can get into all of the different kinds of the bets, you need to know about the systems used to calculate the payouts for each type. There are three primary betting systems used in horse racing. The method used will vary around the world and by track.

Fixed odds betting is one of the most common systems across different sports. When you place a bet using fixed odds, you stake a wager with a bookmaker, who has established odds for that bet. Your payout is calculated on the amount you staked multiplied times the odds. Odds are expressed as fractions, decimals, or moneyline odds depending on the country. Sometimes, bookmakers will use a starting price which means that the odds are not known until the start of the race after the bets are in.

Let’s say that you bet that Bolt d’Oro will win the 2018 Kentucky Derby at 5 to 1 odds with an original stake of $10. If Bolt d’Oro wins, you will $50, plus get back your original $10 for a total payout of $60.

It’s pretty easy to understand fixed odds betting once you get started. One of the benefits of fixed-odds is that you can almost always calculate your potential payout before you place the bet. The second betting system which is particularly popular with horse races is pari-mutuel or tote betting.

Instead of calculating your payout using odds, they are calculated based on the total pool of all stakes made for that bet. The more people that place a wager, the larger the pool is, and the higher the payout will be, but it is divided based on how significant your original stake was.

It is impossible to calculate your potential payout because you don’t know how large the pool was or how many people placed winning bets.The newest betting system is called exchange betting, and the use of technology means that it is growing in popularity.

Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you bet against another person. Essentially, you choose a horse, set your own odds, and offer a stake amount, and you hope that another person bets the opposite of your selection. Exchange betting allows people to make lay bets against a horse.

It is often easier to choose a horse that won’t win instead of one that will, but bookmakers don’t usually offer these types of bets. In some cases, you will not be able to choose your betting system.

Some racetracks only use pari-mutuel wagers, while others offer just fixed odds. If you are gambling online instead of in-person, you can usually find a website that will provide what you are looking for.

Understanding the difference in your possible payouts can help you deliberately use different methods for different bets to get the highest payout. Incorporating different ways of betting is equally as useful as including various types of wagers, as long as you are smart about it.

Place, Show, and Across the Board Bets

When it comes to horse racing, the most common bet after win bets are the place bet. Place bets are standard in pretty much every country, but they are organized a little bit different in some countries than others. In the United States, you choose one horse, and you will win if that horse comes in either first or second place.

It is basically a way of increasing your chances to win because you have two opportunities to be right instead of one.

In other countries, the place bet is pretty similar, except that they allow you to cover more ranks depending on the number of horses in the race. For example, you may be able to bet that your horse will come in any of the top three or four places depending on the details of that race.

Place bets are great for times when you think that your horse has a pretty good chance of winning but you’re not sure, because it allows you to hedge your bet a little.
In the United States, you can still bet up to the third place, but we usually call those show bets instead of place bets.

Across the board, bets are used in the U.S. as a way to combine win, place and show stakes into one bet. The idea is that you bet an equal dollar amount on each wager. If your horse comes in first place, you get a payout on the total amount. If it places in second, you get two-thirds of the payout, and third place gets you one-third.

Bets are another excellent way to make a fortune when you are confident that a horse will do well, but you aren’t sure if it will win first place. You can still get a payout even if the horse comes in second or third place. The rest of the world calls these each way bets, but they usually just combine win and place bets since other countries don’t tend to use show bets.

Multiple Horse Bets

Another fun way to incorporate various bets is to bet on multiple horses in the same race. Depending on which one of the following stakes you choose, it may be harder to win, but the payouts are usually higher. If you have done your homework and are confident about your selections, these are an excellent way to get a bigger bang for your buck.

To place an exacta bet, you choose the horses that you think will win a first and second place. To win, you have to get both horses and their order right. Exactas are sometimes called dual forecast, perfecta, or exactor. A quinella bet is also guessing the top two places, but you don’t have to get the order right to win, so quinellas are easier than exactas. Quinellas also go by other names like reverse exactas, reverse forecasts or reverse perfectas.

Based on the everyday use of the word trifecta, you can probably guess what a trifecta bet is; a bet on which three horses will win the top three spots in the race. A superfecta takes it one step further to allow you to wager on the top four spots in a run. These are some of the most challenging bets to win because you have to get the order right, but they have massive payouts when you do win.

I suggest that you use these bets sparingly and only when you are super confident in your choices. Another alternative is to make a reverse trifecta that doesn’t require you to guess the correct order.

Another fun type of wager for multiple horses is called a match-up bet. In a match-up, the bookmaker chooses a pair of horses, and you simply choose which horse will finish ahead of the other one. With match-up bets, it doesn’t matter who wins the race overall because you only have to decide which horse will beat one other one. These are fun, easy ways to mix up your bets without having to do a lot of extra work, especially if you aren’t sure who the overall winner will be.

Multiple Race Bets

Instead of betting on multiple horses, you can also bet on numerous races. These bets are appealing to many gamblers because they don’t cost much, but they can have huge payouts, but the higher the payout, the higher the risk. These are incredibly difficult to get right because you are placing bets on multiple variables.

For the most part, all of the multiple race bets work the same way. You choose who you think will win first place in consecutive races at the same track. If you are selecting the winner in two runs, it is called a daily double. You can also choose winners for three, four and six races in bets called pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. In the United Kingdom, pick-6 bets are called scoop six wagers.

Another way to bet on multiple races, or numerous horses and various races is to place an accumulator or parlay bet. These are less common in the U.S., depending on the betting system used but they are available. There are virtually endless possibilities for parlays because you are placing as many bets as you want into one combination.

Some of the most common accumulators are super Yankees, where you put 26 bets on five horses, or Heinz of 57 total wagers on six horses, or goliaths with a total of 247 separate bets on eight horses.

Double Your Stake Betting Strategy

Obviously, these are harder to win because you have to get all of your selections correct or you will lose it all. I would suggest getting used to each bet before you attempt an accumulator.

Tip #3- Shop the Odds

Shopping the odds is a pretty simple way to increase your overall payout, and it applies to pretty much all bets, not just horse races. However, it doesn’t work on pari-mutuel betting because there is no way to control the size of the pool. But if you are using fixed odds, you might as well get the best value for your money.

Once you have chosen the horse or horses that you will bet on and select the type of bet you want to place, you can begin to shop the odds. Check with a variety of online gambling sites, as well as the on-course bookmaker, to find out the odds for a specific bet. Then just go with whichever options gives you the highest chance of winning the most.

Shopping the odds might seem like it doesn’t make that big of a difference at first. You may only make a few extra bucks on each bet. But if you are betting on a regular basis, those extra few dollars will add up quickly. It is worth taking an extra few minutes to do a quick search, but it is not worth obsessively searching every possible website.

After checking those sites a few times for a few different races, you will begin to notice a pattern of which sites usually offer the best odds. You can create your own system of using 2-3 sites for most bets. You should also consider the bonuses that each site will provide.

If one site has odds that will earn an extra $5, but another site has a $15 bonus, go with the one with the higher reward! Almost every online sportsbook will offer welcome gifts for your first time using that site. But some of them will also offer reload bonuses for your subsequent bets, or other special offers. They are making money every time you lose, so rewards are an easy way to get some of that money back.

Tip #4 Bet on Multiple Races, but Not Every One

This strategy comes down to some pretty simple probability, the more times that you place a wager, the more chances you have to win. And if you bet on multiple races, you are already a much smarter gambler than most of the population. Statistically, if you look at the total amount spent on horse race gambling in a single year, approximately 70% of that total is paid during the Kentucky Derby.

So Many Races

The Derby is the most popular race in America, but it certainly isn’t the only one. In fact, it is the first race of the Triple Crown series. Even if you just bet on each of the tracks in the Triple Crown, you would still have two more chances to win. For those of you who don’t know, the Triple Crown is made up of the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes races. Only 12 horses in the history of American horse racing have ever won all three races.

Another chance to bet on multiple races is to bet on the races leading up to the derby. 35 races take place around the world. The fastest four horses in each of those races earn points, and the twenty horses with the most points by the end get to go to the Kentucky Derby. That is an easy way to bet 35 different times before you bet on the biggest race of the year and each of those bets will help you to be familiar with the horses that will compete in the derby.

Different Kinds of Races

It is always good to branch out and try new things because the more that you do, the more you will learn. Horse racing is no different. The best way to broaden your gambling horizons on horse races is to bet on different types of horse races.

Flat racing is the type of competition that this blog has focused on up to this point because it is the most popular. Flat racing is where thoroughbred horses run on a flat track for one to three miles. Dirt tracks are used most often in the United States, but most other countries prefer turf.

Often referred to as jump racing or steeplechasing, the National Hunt gives horses obstacles that they have to jump over on their way to the finish line. These obstacles might be simple hurdles, or they might be a combination of fences, trenches, and water.

Arabian horses tend to dominate the next kind of horse race, endurance racing. These are long-distance races usually covering 50-100 miles. Some of them even take multiple days. Endurance races aren’t held on traditional tracks but traditionally held on a trail that is designated by the racing organization. The path can include any terrain, but 90% of it has to be off-road.

Any natural obstacles like ditches or water are marked on the trail. Although it is a fascinating sport, very few people have a long enough attention span to pay attention to such a long race, so this is one of the least favorite types of horse races. However, you don’t need to watch the whole thing to place a bet on the winner and potentially earn some extra cash.

Another exciting racing variety is harness racing. Horses pull their jockey in a sulky, which is a two-wheeled cart. Basically, it is the modern form of ancient chariot races. These races are less focused on speed and more centered on horses trotting a specific pace for an extended time. Horses can be punished for speeding up to a gallop by being forced to slow down and let the competition pass.

The shortest type of horse racing is called quarter horse racing, in which horses race for a quarter mile or less. Running is a good analogy for the various types of horse races. Flat racing is the same as a 5k run, endurance racing is a marathon, and quarter horse races are the 100-meter dash. The All-American Futurity is the most popular quarter-horse race in America.

A Simple Warning

Clearly, there are hundreds of horse races that you could potentially bet on. While betting on more races increases your probability of wins, don’t try to place a bet on every single one. Betting on every horse race will quickly take the fun out of the experience and devastate your bankroll.

My suggestion is to choose a few different races at a time. If you have only ever bet on the Kentucky Derby, add in the rest of the Triple Crown this year, and maybe a couple of the pre-derby races for next year. If harness racing is inspiring your inner-Spartan, gamble on a harness race or two. Add a few different bets on a few different tracks over time, and you will increase your odds of winning without going overboard.

Tip #5- Manage Your Bankroll

Manage your bankroll! Make a budget! Control your cash! I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management enough. It is something that every bettor needs to learn, regardless of what they are gambling on.

To manage your bankroll, you must first have a bankroll. Don’t just use your checking account and hope that money will magically show up in it later. Before you begin betting, check your financial situation. Make sure that you have set aside enough money for your rent, your groceries, your bills, and your coffee habit. Once you know how much money you will have leftover, consider how much of that you want to save, and how much of it you are willing to risk.

The amount that you are willing to risk is your bankroll. Putting it into a different account or taking it out as cash will increase the likelihood that you won’t spend more than that. Bookmakers or online sites take advantage of people who lack self-control by making it all too easy to get more cash from the ATM or a credit card or an easy digital transfer. If you start out with a limited cash supply, you will be less likely to overspend. But don’t stop there!

The next step to bankroll management is to decide how much you are willing to pay for each stake. If you choose ahead of time how much you will place on each bet, you will be able to resist the temptation to bet higher amounts reactively.

When I say the small percentage, I mean no more than 3%. Keeping each stake down will allow you to make as many bets as you want without running out of money. Using percentages instead of dollar amounts means that you can bet higher values when you are winning and lower numbers when you are losing, without ever risking your entire bankroll. Here’s an example to help you understand the math.

Let’s say that your bankroll is a total of $1,000. $10 is 1% of your bankroll, and $30 is 3%. So you can bet any amount between $10-$30 on each bet. Even if you are combining multiple stakes into one parlay, you would still only wager $30 on the one parlay bet. The most that you can lose is $30.

If you continued with this system for a month or so, you would have experienced a few losses and a few wins. For now, we will be optimistic and assume that you have had more wins than losses. Now you can either cash out your winnings, or you can add them to your bankroll, or you can do a little of both.

For this example, we will say that you increased your bankroll by $350 and cashed out the rest. Your new stake limit is $40 because 30% of $1,350 is $40. Therefore, you can adjust your bets to between $13-$40.

If you hit a losing streak, because everyone has them every once in a while, you would merely decrease your bankroll amount and make smaller bets. That way you won’t go chasing the next win and end up risking it all on one or two wagers.

The reason that you give yourself a range of 1-3% is so that you can adjust your stakes based on your confidence level. You bet the full 3% stake on the bets that you are most confident of, and the ones that you are a little unsure of use the 1%.

Of course, you can use any number in between. That 3% limit keeps you from getting caught up in the moment and betting emotionally. Gambling is not fun when you are losing all of your money, so protect yourself by managing your bankroll.

The competition itself may not be all that exciting but wagering on it is. Millions of people bet on horse races each year, but very few of them take it seriously enough to win a significant payout, especially when they only bet on one track. Hopefully, this article has taught you a few simple strategies that you can use to take your bets to the next level. Some of these tips may seem overwhelming at first, but if you take them one step at a time, you will eventually be able to incorporate all of them successfully. Good luck on your next bets!

A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake.

Since a gambler will almost surely eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy is certain to make money for the gambler provided they have infinite wealth and there is no limit on money earned in a single bet. However, no gambler possess infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets can bankrupt unlucky gamblers who chose to use the martingale, causing a catastrophic loss. Despite the fact that the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy, the gambler's expected value remains zero because the small probability that the gambler will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with the expected gain. In a casino, the expected value is negative, due to the house's edge. Additionally, as the likelihood of a string of consecutive losses occurs more often than common intuition suggests, martingale strategies can bankrupt a gambler quickly.

The martingale strategy has also been applied to roulette, as the probability of hitting either red or black is close to 50%.

Intuitive analysis[edit]

The fundamental reason why all martingale-type betting systems fail is that no amount of information about the results of past bets can be used to predict the results of a future bet with accuracy better than chance. In mathematical terminology, this corresponds to the assumption that the win-loss outcomes of each bet are independent and identically distributed random variables, an assumption which is valid in many realistic situations. It follows from this assumption that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum, over all bets that could potentially occur in the series, of the expected value of a potential bet times the probability that the player will make that bet. In most casino games, the expected value of any individual bet is negative, so the sum of many negative numbers will also always be negative.

The martingale strategy fails even with unbounded stopping time, as long as there is a limit on earnings or on the bets (which is also true in practice).^[1] It is only with unbounded wealth, bets and time that it could be argued that the martingale becomes a winning strategy.

Mathematical analysis[edit]

The impossibility of winning over the long run, given a limit of the size of bets or a limit in the size of one's bankroll or line of credit, is proven by the optional stopping theorem.^[1]

However, without these limits, the martingale betting strategy is certain to make money for the gambler because the chance of at least one coin flip coming up heads approaches one as the number of coin flips approaches infinity.

Mathematical analysis of a single round[edit]

Let one round be defined as a sequence of consecutive losses followed by either a win, or bankruptcy of the gambler. After a win, the gambler 'resets' and is considered to have started a new round. A continuous sequence of martingale bets can thus be partitioned into a sequence of independent rounds. Following is an analysis of the expected value of one round.

Let q be the probability of losing (e.g. for American double-zero roulette, it is 20/38 for a bet on black or red). Let B be the amount of the initial bet. Let n be the finite number of bets the gambler can afford to lose.

The probability that the gambler will lose all n bets is qⁿ. When all bets lose, the total loss is

Betting Stake Strategy Tactics

${\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}B\cdot 2^{i-1}=B(2^n-1)}$

The probability the gambler does not lose all n bets is 1 − qⁿ. In all other cases, the gambler wins the initial bet (B.) Thus, the expected profit per round is

${\displaystyle (1-q^n)\cdot B-q^n\cdot B(2^n-1)=B(1-(2q{)}^n)}$

Whenever q > 1/2, the expression 1 − (2q)ⁿ < 0 for all n > 0. Thus, for all games where a gambler is more likely to lose than to win any given bet, that gambler is expected to lose money, on average, each round. Increasing the size of wager for each round per the martingale system only serves to increase the average loss.

Betting Stake Strategy Meaning

Suppose a gambler has a 63 unit gambling bankroll. The gambler might bet 1 unit on the first spin. On each loss, the bet is doubled. Thus, taking k as the number of preceding consecutive losses, the player will always bet 2^k units.

With a win on any given spin, the gambler will net 1 unit over the total amount wagered to that point. Once this win is achieved, the gambler restarts the system with a 1 unit bet.

With losses on all of the first six spins, the gambler loses a total of 63 units. This exhausts the bankroll and the martingale cannot be continued.

How To Stake Bet And Win

In this example, the probability of losing the entire bankroll and being unable to continue the martingale is equal to the probability of 6 consecutive losses: (10/19)⁶ = 2.1256%. The probability of winning is equal to 1 minus the probability of losing 6 times: 1 − (10/19)⁶ = 97.8744%.

The expected amount won is (1 × 0.978744) = 0.978744.
The expected amount lost is (63 × 0.021256)= 1.339118.
Thus, the total expected value for each application of the betting system is (0.978744 − 1.339118) = −0.360374 .

In a unique circumstance, this strategy can make sense. Suppose the gambler possesses exactly 63 units but desperately needs a total of 64. Assuming q > 1/2 (it is a real casino) and he may only place bets at even odds, his best strategy is bold play: at each spin, he should bet the smallest amount such that if he wins he reaches his target immediately, and if he doesn't have enough for this, he should simply bet everything. Eventually he either goes bust or reaches his target. This strategy gives him a probability of 97.8744% of achieving the goal of winning one unit vs. a 2.1256% chance of losing all 63 units, and that is the best probability possible in this circumstance.^[2] However, bold play is not always the optimal strategy for having the biggest possible chance to increase an initial capital to some desired higher amount. If the gambler can bet arbitrarily small amounts at arbitrarily long odds (but still with the same expected loss of 10/19 of the stake at each bet), and can only place one bet at each spin, then there are strategies with above 98% chance of attaining his goal, and these use very timid play unless the gambler is close to losing all his capital, in which case he does switch to extremely bold play.^[3]

Alternative mathematical analysis[edit]

How To Stake Bets

The previous analysis calculates expected value, but we can ask another question: what is the chance that one can play a casino game using the martingale strategy, and avoid the losing streak long enough to double one's bankroll.

As before, this depends on the likelihood of losing 6 roulette spins in a row assuming we are betting red/black or even/odd. Many gamblers believe that the chances of losing 6 in a row are remote, and that with a patient adherence to the strategy they will slowly increase their bankroll.

In reality, the odds of a streak of 6 losses in a row are much higher than many people intuitively believe. Psychological studies have shown that since people know that the odds of losing 6 times in a row out of 6 plays are low, they incorrectly assume that in a longer string of plays the odds are also very low. When people are asked to invent data representing 200 coin tosses, they often do not add streaks of more than 5 because they believe that these streaks are very unlikely.^[4] This intuitive belief is sometimes referred to as the representativeness heuristic.

Anti-martingale[edit]

In a classic martingale betting style, gamblers increase bets after each loss in hopes that an eventual win will recover all previous losses. The anti-martingale approach, also known as the reverse martingale, instead increases bets after wins, while reducing them after a loss. The perception is that the gambler will benefit from a winning streak or a 'hot hand', while reducing losses while 'cold' or otherwise having a losing streak. As the single bets are independent from each other (and from the gambler's expectations), the concept of winning 'streaks' is merely an example of gambler's fallacy, and the anti-martingale strategy fails to make any money. If on the other hand, real-life stock returns are serially correlated (for instance due to economic cycles and delayed reaction to news of larger market participants), 'streaks' of wins or losses do happen more often and are longer than those under a purely random process, the anti-martingale strategy could theoretically apply and can be used in trading systems (as trend-following or 'doubling up'). (But see also dollar cost averaging.)

See also[edit]

References[edit]

What Is The Best Betting Strategy

1. ^ ^abMichael Mitzenmacher; Eli Upfal (2005), Probability and computing: randomized algorithms and probabilistic analysis, Cambridge University Press, p. 298, ISBN978-0-521-83540-4, archived from the original on October 13, 2015
2. ^Lester E. Dubins; Leonard J. Savage (1965), How to gamble if you must: inequalities for stochastic processes, McGraw Hill
3. ^Larry Shepp (2006), Bold play and the optimal policy for Vardi's casino, pp 150–156 in: Random Walk, Sequential Analysis and Related Topics, World Scientific
4. ^Martin, Frank A. (February 2009). 'What were the Odds of Having Such a Terrible Streak at the Casino?'(PDF). WizardOfOdds.com. Retrieved 31 March 2012.

Betting Stake Strategy Definition