Odds and probabilities calculation of a football (soccer) match. The probabilities (odds) calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics (see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS ), the basic random variables are the distribution of Poisson or Skellam. Odds Probabilities. The quality of the odds you are getting is essential, and if you don't know how to calculate them on your own, you should learn. Not understanding the odds is the main reason people lose funds in the long run. In our article, we would help you learn more about football betting in general, and how to understand odds better, and how bookmakers work.

How To Be An Odds Calculator

Your typical mug punter tends to gamble based on heart or random hunch.

Bookmakers on the other hand tend to put a bit of effort into trying to calculate
true odds for a soccer match or sporting event.

It is hackneyed advice I know but if you want long term success at soccer betting
then one must try and restrict bets to those where you believe odds on offer from
the bookmakers exceeds true odds.

Bookmaker soccer odds are easy to find but how do you calculate true odds?

Well there are many ways of determining true soccer betting odds.

What we have for you here is a free download pdf explaining one method.

It was taught to one of our soccer betting expert advisors here whilst he
was working for a major bookmaker.

It is a very useful primer if you want to set down the route of calculating or compiling your own soccer betting odds.

Download your copy at the link below.

What Next?

We also offer a Totally FREE mini soccer betting course written by an odds compiler mate.

No silly hyped up miracle system type stuff.

More so very good solid advice from someone with
years sitting on the bookmaker side of the fence.

A good builder builds a house on a strong foundation.

This course can help you plant your feet firmly for your
attack on the bookmakers this soccer season.

How To Calculate True Odds In Soccer Tournament

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And Then?

I'd like you to take a value bet to a one pound stake.

Read more about the qualified team you will have on your side on our home page

How To Calculate True Odds

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How To Calculate True Odds In Soccer Scores

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The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a simple guide on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.

While novice bettors tend to compare odds, smart bettors know that the real price a bookmaker is charging is the betting odds’ margins - our Margin Calculator offers a simple way to calculate the margin applied to a bet.

Let’s take an example of a soccer game with three possible outcomes (home team to win, away team to win, draw). For the first week of the Premier League 2016/17 season, Pinnacle offered an opening price of 3.41 for Hull City to win at the KCOM Stadium against Leicester City, who were priced at 2.39, with the draw set at 3.19.

Calculating 1X2 odds’ margin in two simple steps

1.Convert the odds for all three possible outcomes into decimal probability

2. Solve for the equation:

Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1

Step One: The first step in calculating margins on 1X2 odds is to convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. That’s the equation inside each set of brackets above: (1/Odds).

For the home team, in this case Hull City, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (which symbolises a 29.3% chance of winning), while the draw is (1/3.19) = 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) = 0.418.

Step Two: Now simply substitute the numbers above into the rest of the formula to calculate the margin.

Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Therefore the margin is 0.024 – or 2.4%.

Comparing bookmaker’s margin

The same game sees another popular bookmaker offer odds for Hull City at 3.10, Leicester at 2.10 and a draw 2.90. This works out to a huge margin of 12%, which is more than five times more expensive than Pinnacle.

In practical terms, this means that if you had placed a $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market you would have won $31 more playing with Pinnacle than by placing the same bet with another major online bookmaker.

How Do You Calculate True Odds

At Pinnacle, we don't just believe that it is important to offer the best odds; we are also on a mission to educate bettors on how to make more sophisticated decisions. But don't take our word for it. We encourage you to check our margins and compare us to other bookmakers, before deciding what is the best sports betting deal online.

Due to our unique risk management model, we are able to offer better value than other bookmakers. This is why Pinnacle is the number one choice for sharp bettors.