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We got back to cashing tickets yesterday, so let’s see if we can keep that going on the last day of NBA action before the All-Star Break. Tonight we’re looking at the game in Indiana involving the Pacers and the Denver Nuggets. Indiana finally got back to winning after defeating the Cavs yesterday but will be in for a much tougher test in this matchup.

Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers

Thursday, March 04, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at Bankers Life Fieldhouse

Denver Is Hotter Than Fish Grease

When the Denver Nuggets are playing their best, they are a team capable of beating anyone in the NBA. Unfortunately, consistency is the one thing that Denver hasn't been able to master in the past few years. In fairness to the Nuggets, this season they have had to deal with significant roster turnover, which has been a difficult obstacle for them to overcome. They seem to have done that with a few difficult rotation moves by head coach Mike Malone, who isn't afraid to make those types of decisions.

Although the Nuggets have won three in a row, they started off February 5-7, which is a reminder to those of us investing in this team that we need to proceed with caution. Remember, although Denver is 20-15 on the season when it comes to covering spreads, they are below .500 (16-19). As for tonight's game, the Nuggets opened at -4 favorites. Most of the top online sportsbooks have moved up to -4.5, which seems to be the consensus across the board.

I'm taking Denver in this spot as road favorites, partly because of how incredibly hot they are and how inconsistent the Pacers have been, which I'll get to later. In the past two weeks, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter Jr. have been absolutely on fire.

Jokic has been one of the best players in the league all season, and the inconsistency that has plagued his game seems to be a thing of the past. Murray still struggles in that department, but in the last 2 weeks, he's averaging 30.9 per game on 58% shooting, including 53% from the field. Add to that Porter Jr.'s scoring output during that span (15 ppg on 53% from the field and 47% from three), and you have a team that can outscore the best of them.

Indiana Has Been Everything but Consistent Lately

As much time as I just spent pointing out how inconsistent Denver has been, the same applies to Indiana, especially this season. Before I talk about how bad they've been since February 1st, there's a more important point that needs to be made. The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA at covering spreads. They've only covered 41% of the time, which is the 4th worst record in the NBA. If the Pacers fail to cover tonight, there's a good chance that the only team with a worse ATS record than them would be the Houston Rockets, who are an absolute dumpster fire.

The Pacers are 5-9 since the start of February, and there is no obvious reason for their bad play. A lot of people complained when Domantas Sabonis did not make the All-Star Team. While I do understand their argument, the last 5 weeks have proven that he's closer to a borderline All-Star as opposed to a clear-cut choice, which is why he didn't make it, and why he was chosen as a replacement. He's been fine, but his play has not translated to wins. This is not meant as an indictment on Sabonis, but rather his teammates. Other than Malcolm Brogdon, the rest of the Pacers simply have not been good enough.

I always hear Defensive Player of the Year talk for Myles Turner, which is something I can never quite comprehend. Yes, he's an elite shot-blocker (2.7 blocks per game), but what about his terrible rebounding (6.4 per game) numbers. In case you're confused about the correlation to defense, rebounding is the last act of defense, which is why they specifically call them defensive rebounds. Sabonis averages 11.1 rebounds per game with about 25% of the athletic ability that Turner possesses.

In my opinion, until the Pacers come to the realization that Sabonis and Turner should not be starting together, they will never take the next step. I think Jokic has his way with both of Indiana's big men en route to a road win for the Nuggets, which is my NBA pick for this game.

NBA Pick: Nuggets -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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How to read NBA Las Vegas Money Line Odds

All you need to do is pick is the winner!

If you’re placing NBA money line wagers then you’re rooting for one team to grab a straight-up win. The betting term Against the Spread (ATS) doesn't matter for these types of bets since the point-spread doesn’t come into play.

Similar to our Spread and 1st Half Odds, every matchup is listed in order of Rotation and those numbers are preceded by the Date and Time of the NBA game.

Every game has a Favorite and Underdog associated with the Money Line Odds and the plus (+) and minus (-) symbols are used to differentiate the teams. For NBA money line odds, it’s a simple math formula that’s based on $100 wagers.

Nba Moneyline Betting

Toronto -400 (Bet $100 to win $25)
San Antonio +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)

In the above example, Toronto is the favorite (-) while San Antonio is the underdog. If a bettor wanted to back Toronto, who is expected to win, they would only win $25 on a $100 wager since they are minus -400. Some books will provide an extra option to view their betting odds in Fraction format and Toronto would be a 1/4 favorite in this matchup. If you prefer Decimal format, which is very common overseas, Toronto would be 1.25 on the betting board.

Since Toronto is the favorite, San Antonio is the underdog and bettors would receive a positive return greater than their initial stake. In this example, a $100 winning wager on San Antonio would net $400 and that includes your $300 win and $100 stake. The fractional odds for this example would be San Antonio at 3/1 and the Decimal conversion would read 4.0.

How to Bet NBA Money Line Odds

A majority of NBA games involve point-spreads of single-digits, while games that see a favorite of 10 points or more is not usually the norm, although it happens.

The VegasInsider.com Parlay Calculator is a great tool to see what kind of return you can create while avoiding the pitfalls of risk.

In the NBA playoffs, there is no single-elimination rounds. Each round is a best-of-seven series with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round.

Picking a straight up winner seems easy and if you don’t want to lay the points, then betting money line wagers is for you. Underdog winners aren't as easy to find in the playoffs as the team with the higher seed usually advances, but straight up 'dogs sometimes come through in the postseason.